Lunar New Year Disruptions and Ocean Overcapacity Drive February Freight Market Volatility

The global freight market is navigating a period of heightened volatility in February 2026, primarily influenced by the impending Lunar New Year (Chinese New Year) celebrations and persistent challenges with ocean freight overcapacity. The holiday, officially beginning on February 17, 2026, is instigating a six to eight-week disruption window that extends beyond the official public holiday period. Factories and logistics operations in Asia commenced winding down weeks prior to the holiday, with full capacity not expected to resume until mid-March. This seasonal event has historically triggered a surge in pre-holiday shipping, leading to port congestion and a tightening of capacity. Indeed, Chinese ports like Ningbo and Nansha are already experiencing severe congestion due to carriers overbooking vessel space, which is causing cargo rollovers and increased operational costs for shippers. In response to anticipated post-holiday lulls and a general oversupply of vessel capacity, ocean carriers are expected to implement aggressive blank sailings to manage available space and attempt to stabilize falling spot rates. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) decreased 7% to $1,959 per 40ft container for the fourth consecutive week, largely due to declines on Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes, signalling that the traditional pre-Lunar New Year demand surge has not materialized as expected in 2026. Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown recent fluctuations, dipping slightly but remaining firmer than early 2025 levels, though overall dry bulk sentiment has softened due to the seasonal slowdown. In air cargo, global demand saw a 7% rise in January, partly attributed to front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year. However, analysts caution against over-optimism, citing weaker e-commerce demand from China and potential geopolitical impacts later in the year. The confluence of seasonal disruption, ongoing overcapacity, and strategic carrier responses underscores a complex and challenging landscape for global logistics providers and shippers in the coming weeks.