Freight Forwarders Brace for Evolving Freight Rates Amidst Shifting Global Dynamics

Ocean Freight Rates: A Mixed Bag with Regional Surges

The global ocean freight market continues to present a varied picture. While some stability has been observed on certain key trade lanes, others are experiencing significant volatility. For instance, recent data indicates that freight rates from Shanghai to New York saw a notable increase, rising 2% in the past week and a substantial 67% over the last four weeks. Similarly, spot rates to Los Angeles from Shanghai also climbed, up 1% in the past week and 89% over the past month, despite fresh capacity injections. This suggests that demand on Transpacific eastbound routes remains strong, impacting container shipping costs.

In contrast, freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa have largely remained stable, highlighting regional disparities in market pressures. The overall Drewry World Container Index has held steady at $3,543 per 40ft container, but this global average masks the significant regional fluctuations that freight forwarders must track closely when securing ocean freight quotes.

Looking ahead, industry experts are forecasting a potential softening of rates in the longer term due to increased capacity expected after February. However, ongoing disruptions, such as deviations via the Cape of Good Hope, continue to absorb significant capacity, contributing to higher **international shipping rates**.

Air Cargo Market: Steady Demand, Rising Rates

The air cargo sector has seen sustained demand, particularly driven by the e-commerce boom, which is consuming available capacity and commanding premium rates. Global average air cargo rates rose 4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a 3.9% month-over-month increase in March. This consistent upward trend underscores the importance of efficient air freight rate calculation and timely bookings for forwarders.

While overall international air cargo demand growth has been positive, it has slowed compared to Q1 2024, influenced by market hesitation amid de minimis regulations and tariff changes. Nevertheless, the continuous appetite for expedited shipments ensures that air freight remains a critical, albeit higher-cost, component of the global supply chain, impacting overall logistics costs.

European Road Freight: Rates Decline Amidst Weakened Demand

In Europe, road freight rates experienced a decline in Q1 2025. The IRU's European Road Freight Spot Rate Benchmark Index fell to 134.1 points, down 3.8 points from Q4 2024. This decrease is attributed to subdued consumer demand, slowing cost growth, and uncertainty stemming from trade tensions. Despite a rise in diesel prices earlier in the quarter, recent weeks have seen prices fall, further easing pressure on trucking freight rates.

The outlook for European road freight suggests continued lower volumes through 2025, which is expected to maintain downward pressure on rates. However, a potential strengthening of real GDP and household spending in the medium term could lead to a rebound in freight volumes and rate stability.

Key Factors Influencing Future Freight Rates for Forwarders

Freight forwarders should remain vigilant regarding several critical factors that will continue to shape freight rates:

  • Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing conflicts and new government-threatened tariffs can swiftly alter trade flows and impact shipping costs.
  • Regulatory Pressures: Stricter environmental regulations, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and IMO regulations, will likely increase operational costs for carriers, which could be passed on to shippers. Forwarders will need to consider these when providing freight estimates.
  • Supply-Demand Balance: While new vessel deliveries are increasing overall capacity, port congestion and operational disruptions can effectively limit available capacity, driving up rates.
  • Technological Advancements: The adoption of AI and automation in logistics will continue to streamline operations and potentially offer more transparent and efficient freight quote comparisons.

By closely monitoring these trends and leveraging advanced tools for freight rate inquiries and market analysis, freight forwarders can strategically navigate the evolving landscape of 2025, ensuring competitive pricing and robust supply chain solutions for their clients.

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