Release Date: 01 August 2006
Release ID: 584
After falling below the national average in 2005, Manitoba’s export growth is expected to more than double the average Canadian rate in 2006, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
The province’s total exports are forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2006 and by 2 per cent in 2007, among the top three export forecasts in the country.
“After two tough years, Manitoba’s exports have risen to the top of Canadian performance,” said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. “The rebound will come on the back of returning agri-food exports and continued strength in energy sales.” Manitoba’s exports are driven by the agri-food and industrial goods sectors, accounting for 30.3 and 19.2 per cent of the province’s total exports.
Overall, the province’s agri-food exports are forecast to grow by a substantial 13 per cent in 2006 and moderate to 3 per cent in 2007. Drought and early frost in 2004, followed by excessive rains last summer led to poor grain quality and low harvest levels in 2005. As a result, wheat, oilseeds and pulse exports all suffered large declines in 2005. Wheat exports are expected to rebound in 2006 due to higher yields from last year’s growing season. Exports of oilseed are expected to rise in 2006, despite a double digit decline in prices. Exports of pulses and special crops will also increase in 2006. Manitoba’s exports of oilseeds and pulses are expected to grow by 3 per cent in 2006 before declining by 3 per cent in 2007. Hog exports out of Manitoba were up 19 were in 2005, while foreign pork sales increased by close to 7 per cent.
Steady growth in global industrial production and above-average commodity prices will continue to power Manitoba’s industrial goods exports into the forecast period. But as global surplus positions become clearer toward 2007, prices are expected to pull back. Price erosion in nickel – the largest component in Manitoba’s metal exports – will be partially offset by planned production increases at Inco's operations of 12 per cent in 2006 and 4 per cent in 2007. Collectively, Manitoba’s industrial goods sector is forecast to grow by 6 per cent in 2006 before retreating prices bring export growth down to 0 per cent in 2007.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 3.0 per cent in 2006 and 2.7 per cent in 2007. Canadian export volumes are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006, up slightly from 2 per cent in 2005. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.3 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.1 per cent growth in 2007, down from 4.5 per cent in 2005. The continued healthy performance remains ahead of the historical long term average. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm.
Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada’s export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC’s knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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